…Super Eagles given 7.3% chance to win AFCON 2025
Nigeria’s Super Eagles have been given a 7.3% probability of winning the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) and a 14.77% chance of reaching the final, according to British sports analytics company Opta.
Opta arrived at these projections using its supercomputers, which estimate the probability of each match outcome, win, draw, or loss, by combining betting market odds with the Opta Power Rankings. These rankings are informed by both historical data and recent team performances.
The projections place Nigeria as the fifth most likely team to lift the trophy, behind hosts Morocco (19.1%), Egypt (12.4%), Senegal (12.3%), and Algeria (12%). Defending champions Côte d’Ivoire are ranked seventh with a 6.7% chance, just behind Tunisia in sixth place on 6.8%.
A deeper breakdown of the statistics shows that the Super Eagles have a 42.09% chance of topping Group C, which also includes Tunisia, Uganda, and Tanzania. Nigeria is given an 88.61% probability of reaching the round of 16, a 50.45% chance of progressing to the quarter-finals, and a 27.61% likelihood of making the semi-finals. Their chances of reaching the final and winning the tournament stand at 14.77% and 7.3% respectively.
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With attacking talents such as Victor Osimhen, Ademola Lookman, Samuel Chukwueze, and Paul Onuachu, Nigeria boasts one of the strongest and most feared forward lines not only in Africa but globally.
Several Super Eagles players are also hitting top form at the right time. Samuel Chukwueze has rediscovered his spark, while Akor Adams and Chidera Ejuke enjoyed positive outings for Sevilla, both getting on the scoresheet, with Adams also providing two assists.
Nigeria’s attacking depth is such that some notable omissions could comfortably start for many other national teams. Players like Victor Boniface and Tolu Arokodare underline the sheer quality available to the squad.
While the team faces challenges in certain areas, most notably the injury to defender Ola Aina and the retirement of captain William Troost-Ekong, the Super Eagles remain a side no top African nation can afford to underestimate.
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