Kano Pillars have been given the strongest chance of victory in the second round of the Nigeria Premier Football League season, with the MIAS Supercomputer rating Sai Masu Gida at 78 per cent against Niger Tornadoes.
- How did the supercomputer perform last week?
- Inter Lagos v Doma United
- Ranchers Bees v Abia Warriors
- Kun Khalifat v Barau
- Nasarawa United v Bendel Insurance
- Plateau United v Kwara United
- Kano Pillars v Niger Tornadoes
- Four predictions placed on hold
- Rivers United’s title probability climbs above 50 per cent
The AI-powered model developed by Made In Africa Sport expects nine home victories across the original 10-match programme. Rivers United are the only away team favoured, although their game against Katsina United has been postponed.
Four Matchday Two fixtures will not take place as initially scheduled. The official NPFL fixture list identifies Enyimba against Shooting Stars, Warri Wolves against Rangers and Katsina United against Rivers United as postponed.
The Lagos derby between Sporting Lagos and Ikorodu City has also been postponed indefinitely following the unavailability of the Mobolaji Johnson Arena for Sunday’s game.
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That leaves six matches currently scheduled across Friday and Sunday.
How did the supercomputer perform last week?
The MIAS Supercomputer backed the home team in all 10 opening-round fixtures.
Seven of those selections won, giving the model seven correct outcomes from 10 matches.
It correctly favoured Shooting Stars, Ikorodu City, Barau, Bendel Insurance, Rivers United, Niger Tornadoes and Doma United.
The misses came in the three drawn fixtures: Abia Warriors against Kun Khalifat, Rangers against Katsina United and Kwara United against Kano Pillars.
None of the model’s most probable exact scorelines landed, although it correctly anticipated relatively comfortable victories for Ikorodu City and Rivers United. The official results show that Ikorodu beat Ranchers Bees 3-1, while Rivers defeated Plateau United 2-0.
MIAS therefore begins its running record with seven correct results from 10 and no exact scores.
Inter Lagos v Doma United
Inter Lagos are the second-strongest favourites of the round, with the model giving the Lagos club a 72.9 per cent chance of defeating Doma United at the Mobolaji Johnson Arena.
A draw is rated at 19.1 per cent, while Doma have an eight per cent chance of collecting another victory after their impressive return to the top flight.
MIAS projects 1.95 expected goals for Inter and 0.47 for Doma. Its most probable scoreline is 1-0, although that individual outcome carries only a 17.3 per cent probability.
Inter lost 2-1 to Shooting Stars on their NPFL debut, while Doma began with a 2-0 victory over Sporting Lagos.
The model rates Inter’s attack at 1.07 against the league average of 1.00, compared with Doma’s 0.75.
MIAS prediction: Inter Lagos win
Ranchers Bees v Abia Warriors
This is the most difficult Matchday Two fixture for the model to separate.
Ranchers Bees have a 38.1 per cent chance of winning, compared with 31.7 per cent for a draw and 30.2 per cent for an Abia Warriors victory.
The expected-goals figures are similarly close at 1.02 for Ranchers and 0.87 for Abia Warriors. A 1-0 home win is the leading exact scoreline, but its probability is only 15.3 per cent.
Ranchers’ team ratings provide reason for caution. Their attack is rated at 0.54 and their defence at 1.69, with a lower defensive figure indicating a stronger unit.
Abia Warriors arrive after a goalless draw with Kun Khalifat, while Ranchers conceded three times against Ikorodu City.
MIAS prediction: Ranchers Bees win
Kun Khalifat v Barau
MIAS gives Kun Khalifat a 50.3 per cent chance of victory following their opening-round draw in Umuahia.
Barau’s away-win probability stands at 20.5 per cent, with the draw rated at 29.2 per cent.
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Kun Khalifat and 0.70 for Barau, making 1-0 the most probable scoreline at 17.6 per cent.
Barau, however, travel with confidence after defeating Nasarawa United 3-1. They also hold the better defensive rating at 0.71, compared with Kun Khalifat’s 1.12.
Kun Khalifat’s stronger 1.25 attacking rating and home advantage appear to be driving the model’s selection.
MIAS prediction: Kun Khalifat win
Nasarawa United v Bendel Insurance
Nasarawa United are rated at 60.6 per cent to recover from their opening defeat when they welcome Bendel Insurance to Lafia.
Bendel have a 16.4 per cent chance of securing an away win, while the draw stands at 23 per cent.
The model expects Nasarawa to produce 1.76 goals compared with Insurance’s 0.79, with 1-0 its leading scoreline at 13.7 per cent.
That projection comes despite contrasting opening results. Nasarawa lost 3-1 to Barau, while Bendel Insurance defeated Warri Wolves 2-1.
The clubs’ ratings are relatively close. Nasarawa’s attack stands at 1.23 and Bendel’s at 1.16, while Insurance hold a slightly stronger defensive mark.
MIAS prediction: Nasarawa United win
Plateau United v Kwara United
Plateau United have been handed a 54.8 per cent chance of responding to their 2-0 defeat by Rivers United with a home victory.
Kwara United’s chance of winning in Jos is rated at 16 per cent, while the draw carries a 29.2 per cent probability.
MIAS projects a low-scoring contest, with 1.30 expected goals for Plateau and 0.56 for Kwara. A 1-0 home victory is the leading scoreline at 20.2 per cent.
Kwara demonstrated resilience by recovering from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Kano Pillars last weekend.
Their attack is rated more highly than Plateau’s, but the hosts possess the stronger defensive figure and will benefit from home advantage.
MIAS prediction: Plateau United win
Kano Pillars v Niger Tornadoes
Kano Pillars receive the round’s most emphatic backing, with a 78 per cent probability of defeating Niger Tornadoes at the Sani Abacha Stadium.
The draw is rated at 16.5 per cent, leaving Tornadoes with a 5.5 per cent chance of an away win.
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Pillars and only 0.38 for the visitors. Its most probable scoreline is 2-0 at 18.4 per cent, followed closely by 1-0 at 17.5 per cent.
Pillars surrendered a two-goal advantage in their 2-2 draw with Kwara United, while Tornadoes opened with a notable 2-1 victory over Enyimba.
MIAS nevertheless gives Pillars superior attacking, defensive and transfer ratings. The Kano side’s attack is rated at 1.20, compared with Tornadoes’ 0.74.
MIAS prediction: Kano Pillars win
Four predictions placed on hold
Before the postponements, MIAS made Rivers United the only away favourites of Matchday Two, giving Finidi George’s side a 41.5 per cent chance against Katsina United.
The model also favoured Enyimba at 66 per cent against Shooting Stars, Sporting Lagos at 62.4 per cent in the Lagos derby and Warri Wolves by a narrow 40.5 per cent to 29.6 per cent margin against Rangers.
Those forecasts remain visible on the platform but cannot be assessed until the fixtures are rearranged.
Rivers United’s title probability climbs above 50 per cent
Rivers United’s opening victory has strengthened their position in the full-season projections.
Their title probability has risen from 37.6 per cent before the season to 51.2 per cent, with an expected total of 68.8 points. They also have a 79.8 per cent chance of finishing in the top three.
Enyimba are second at 10.4 per cent, while champions Rangers have dropped from 15.7 per cent before the campaign to 8.9 per cent following their opening draw.
At the bottom, Ranchers Bees’ relegation probability has increased from 94.9 to 96.8 per cent. Doma United’s opening victory has reduced their risk from 55 to 49.5 per cent.
The season projections are produced by simulating the complete 380-match campaign 100,000 times, resulting in 38 million simulated matches.
A launch statement signed by Olamide Abe stressed that the platform’s figures would be updated as new results became available. As MIAS has also cautioned, the percentages describe possible outcomes rather than guaranteeing what will happen.
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