Nigeria have revived their hopes of qualifying for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations following a 3-1 victory over Tanzania in their Matchday Three encounter in Uyo on Friday, November 13, Bold Sports reports.
The Super Eagles, who suffered a disappointing 3-0 defeat to Guinea-Bissau in their previous qualifying fixture, returned to winning ways to strengthen their position in Group L, while Madagascar’s 1-1 draw against Guinea-Bissau further complicated the qualification race.
With three matches played so far, Nigeria now have six points, leaving them one point behind leaders Guinea-Bissau, who have accumulated seven points from the same number of matches.
However, despite the encouraging developments, Eric Chelle’s men still have considerable work to do to secure their place at AFCON 2027, particularly with Guinea-Bissau emerging as their biggest obstacle.
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Understanding the Group L standings
Following the latest round of fixtures, Group L has developed into an interesting qualification contest involving Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar, with Tanzania already guaranteed a place at the tournament as one of the three co-hosts.
The current standings are:
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Madagascar | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
The qualification arrangement makes Group L particularly interesting.
Unlike most qualifying groups, where the first two teams secure automatic qualification, only the highest-ranked team among Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar will qualify from Group L.
This is because Tanzania, alongside Kenya and Uganda, will automatically participate in the 2027 tournament as co-hosts.
Consequently, finishing second will not be sufficient for Nigeria, as the Super Eagles must finish above both Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar to secure the group’s remaining qualification ticket.
Guinea-Bissau emerge as Nigeria’s biggest obstacle
Guinea-Bissau have established themselves as the team to beat in Group L after making an impressive start to their qualification campaign.
They opened their campaign with a 2-0 victory over Tanzania before recording a convincing 3-0 win against Nigeria, a result that handed them a significant advantage over the three-time African champions.
However, their impressive run encountered its first setback when Madagascar held them to a 1-1 draw on Thursday, November 12.
Although the result prevented Guinea-Bissau from maintaining their perfect record, they remain top of the group with seven points.
For Nigeria, the draw was particularly encouraging because it reduced the gap between both countries to just one point.
Nevertheless, the Super Eagles cannot afford to depend entirely on Madagascar to take points away from Guinea-Bissau. Their qualification destiny will ultimately depend on how effectively they approach their remaining fixtures, especially their direct encounter with the group leaders.
Tanzania away: Another opportunity for Nigeria
Nigeria’s immediate attention will turn to their return fixture against Tanzania at the Amaan Stadium in Zanzibar on Tuesday, November 17.
Having secured a 3-1 victory in Uyo, the Super Eagles will be looking to complete a double over the co-hosts and collect another valuable three points.
A victory would take Nigeria to nine points, strengthening their position ahead of the final two qualifying fixtures scheduled for March 2027.
Although Tanzania have already secured their place at the tournament, they will undoubtedly be looking to produce a positive performance in front of their supporters.
For Chelle’s side, however, the objective should be straightforward: avoid dropping points and maintain the momentum gained from their victory in Uyo.
What happens when Guinea-Bissau face Madagascar?
Another important fixture that could significantly influence Nigeria’s qualification prospects is the return encounter between Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar, scheduled for November 17.
The outcome of that match could have a considerable impact on the Group L standings.
If Nigeria defeat Tanzania, three possible scenarios could emerge from the Guinea-Bissau versus Madagascar encounter.
If Guinea-Bissau win:
A victory would take Guinea-Bissau to 10 points, while Nigeria would move to nine points following a win over Tanzania.
This would leave the Super Eagles one point behind the group leaders heading into the final two matchdays.
If both teams draw:
Guinea-Bissau would move to eight points, while Nigeria would climb to nine points, allowing the Super Eagles to take the lead in the qualification race.
If Madagascar win:
A victory for Madagascar would leave Guinea-Bissau on seven points, while Nigeria would move to nine points, giving the Super Eagles a two-point advantage over their closest rivals.
Therefore, a Madagascar victory or a draw would represent a favourable outcome for Nigeria, provided they collect maximum points against Tanzania.
The remaining fixtures: Where qualification could be decided
Beyond the November double-header, Nigeria will have two more opportunities to determine their qualification fate when the campaign resumes in March 2027.
The Super Eagles are scheduled to travel to face Madagascar before hosting Guinea-Bissau in their final group fixture.
The encounter against Madagascar could prove particularly important, as Nigeria will be looking to maintain their advantage over the island nation before facing Guinea-Bissau in what could become a decisive qualification showdown.
More importantly, the final meeting with Guinea-Bissau presents Nigeria with an opportunity to settle their differences with the group leaders after suffering a 3-0 defeat in the reverse fixture.
Winning that encounter could prove decisive, particularly if both countries remain separated by a narrow margin heading into the final matchday.
Can Nigeria still qualify for AFCON 2027?
Undoubtedly, Nigeria remain firmly in contention for a place at the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations, but the Super Eagles have little room for further mistakes.
Their victory over Tanzania, coupled with Guinea-Bissau’s dropped points against Madagascar, has reopened a qualification race that appeared to be slipping away following the disappointing defeat in Bissau.
Nevertheless, Guinea-Bissau remain in control of the group, and Nigeria must find a way to overcome that advantage.
The immediate priority will be securing another victory in Zanzibar before turning attention to the remaining fixtures in March.
For a country with Nigeria’s footballing pedigree, missing out on consecutive Africa Cup of Nations tournaments would represent a significant disappointment.
The Super Eagles have given themselves another opportunity to put their qualification campaign on the right track. Whether they can capitalise on it, however, will depend on how they negotiate the remaining challenges, with Guinea-Bissau standing firmly between Nigeria and a place at AFCON 2027.
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